US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October 2026 and core prices rose 0.3%, both 0.1 percentage point above forecasts of 0.3% and 0.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30am ET (13:30 GMT). Shelter made up more than 30% of the monthly rise, food jumped 0.5% and energy slowed to 0.7% after September's 5.2% surge. As expected, there is no official 12-month inflation rate for all items or core this time, because the BLS never collected October 2025 prices during last year's shutdown.[10][11]
 | |
| Published by | US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) |
|---|---|
| Released | Tuesday, November 10, 2026, 8:30am ET |
| In GMT | 13:30 GMT |
| Headline CPI (Oct) | +0.4% month on month (forecast +0.3%) |
| Core CPI (Oct) | +0.3% month on month (forecast +0.2%) |
| 12-month rate | Not published for all items or core (no October 2025 data) |
| Market reaction | 2-year yield about 4.7% (+13 to 15 bp); FedWatch 50 bp odds about 11% |
| September result | +0.6% m/m, 3.7% over 12 months |
| September core | +0.3% m/m, 2.6% over 12 months |
| Fed funds rate | 3.75% to 4.00% (held October 28) |
| Next Fed decision | December 9, 2026 |
| Next CPI | December 10, 2026 (November data) |
October 2026 CPI results
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in October after 0.6% in September. Core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3% for a third month in a row (August, September and October).[10] Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected 0.3% and 0.2%, and the Bloomberg survey had the same 0.3% and 0.2%, so both numbers came in one tenth of a point hotter than forecast.[11][2]
| Measure (seasonally adjusted, month) | October 2026 actual | Forecast | September 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| All items (headline CPI) | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.6% |
| Core (less food and energy) | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.3% |
| Energy | +0.7% | n/a | +5.2% |
| Gasoline | +1.0% | n/a | +9.1% |
| Food | +0.5% | n/a | 0.0% |
| Shelter | +0.3% | n/a | +0.4% |
| Used cars and trucks | -1.2% | n/a | +0.7% |
| 12-month rate, all items and core | Not published | Not published | 3.7% and 2.6% |
Sources: BLS October 2026 CPI release, Table A;[10] forecasts from Dow Jones via CNBC[11] and Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance.[2]
What drove prices in October
- Shelter: up 0.3% (after 0.4%), more than 30% of the whole monthly increase. Owners' equivalent rent rose 0.3% and rent 0.2%; hotel and lodging prices rose 0.6% after 2.0% in September.[10]
- Food: up 0.5% after no change in September. Food at home rose 0.4% (beef +0.9%, snacks +1.0%, fruit and vegetables +0.6%) and food away from home 0.5%.[10]
- Energy: up 0.7% after 5.2%. The gasoline index rose 1.0% seasonally adjusted, but before seasonal adjustment pump prices actually fell 0.7%. Electricity rose 0.9% and natural gas fell 0.8%.[10]
- Core items that rose: recreation +0.8%, motor vehicle insurance +0.7%, medical care +0.3% (hospital services +0.8%), education +0.3%, new vehicles +0.2%.[10]
- Core items that fell: used cars and trucks -1.2% and communication -0.1%.[10]
Is there an annual inflation rate for October 2026?
No, not for the headline or core index. The BLS confirmed it "did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations", so it "cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are unavailable".[10] A few series do have a 12-month figure in Table A: gasoline is up 37.4% on a year earlier, new vehicles 0.7%, and used cars and trucks are down 3.3%.[10] Any "annual CPI" number quoted for all items is an estimate, not an official BLS figure. The unadjusted CPI-U index level was 337.511 (1982-84=100).[10]
Market reaction
The first hour after the release was clearly risk-off, and the biggest move was in short-dated US government bonds. The 2-year Treasury yield, which tracks expectations for Fed rate decisions most closely, jumped about 13 to 15 basis points to roughly 4.68% to 4.70%, according to CNBC, Yahoo Finance and Reuters via The Globe and Mail.[14][15][16] The 10-year yield, the benchmark for US mortgages and car loans, rose about 7 basis points to around 4.93% to 4.94%, and the 30-year bond yield rose about 3 basis points to 5.29%.[14][15] A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.
| Market | Move after the release | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| 2-year Treasury yield | Up about 13 to 15 bp, to about 4.68% to 4.70% | [14][15][16] |
| 10-year Treasury yield | Up about 7 bp, to about 4.93% to 4.94% | [14][15][19] |
| 30-year Treasury yield | Up about 3 bp, to 5.29% | [14][15] |
| S&P 500 futures | Down about 0.4% to 0.8% | [15][16][19] |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | Down about 1% to 1.4% | [15][19] |
| US dollar index (DXY) | Up about 0.3%, to about 102.05 | [15][17] |
| Spot gold | Down about 2%, to about $4,055 to $4,057 an ounce | [15][18] |
| Bitcoin | Down about 1% more, to around $73,600 | [13][19] |
The moves are snapshots from reports published between about 13:35 and 14:30 GMT, so exact levels differ slightly from outlet to outlet; the ranges above cover the reported figures. Stocks had just had a big day on Monday, which Yahoo Finance described as the S&P 500's best day in seven months, so part of the drop in futures came off a high base.[15] The US Treasury publishes official end-of-day yields after the close. Nothing here is a trading signal.
What CME FedWatch showed after the data
Before the release, CME FedWatch already pointed to a quarter-point rise in December as the most likely outcome, with no real chance of a half-point move.[12] After it, the implied chance of a 50 basis point hike rose to about 11%, from about 1% or less before the data, and the chance of the Fed holding rates fell to 0%, according to readings reported by Bloomingbit and Action Forex.[17][20] The two outlets put the quarter-point probability at 84.7% and 88.7% respectively, which reflects readings taken at slightly different times. Futures odds change through the day and are not a forecast by the Fed itself.
| Outcome | Before CPI | After CPI |
|---|---|---|
| No change | Small | 0% |
| +25 bp hike | Better than 80% | About 85% to 89% |
| +50 bp hike | 0% to 1.1% | About 11% |
What it means for the Fed in December
Hours before the release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in London that he is "leaning toward" a December rate rise even if October inflation came in softer, and that if it came in above forecast, "a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting." He added: "Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take." CNBC says he spoke at a central bank conference hosted by the Bank of England.[12][14] Core CPI did come in above forecast, at 0.3%, which is the level Waller had named as his trigger for a bigger move.[17] Before the data, CME FedWatch showed a better than 80% chance of a quarter-point December hike and no chance of a half-point move, according to CNBC, while CoinDesk said traders had "fully priced in" a December hike.[12][13] The Fed decides on December 9; the October PCE inflation data still comes before then.[5]
When the October CPI report came out
The BLS release calendar lists the October 2026 CPI for November 10, 2026 at 08:30 AM, and the September report itself ends with the same date and time.[1][4] New York left daylight saving time on November 1, so 8:30am ET is 13:30 GMT this month, not 12:30 as it was over the summer.
The next two releases after this one are December 10, 2026 (November data) and January 13, 2027 (December data), both at 8:30am ET.[1]
What economists expected (preview)
The Bloomberg survey median is a 0.3% rise in the headline index and 0.2% in core CPI, which leaves out food and energy. That would be a clear slowdown from September's 0.6% and 0.3%.[2][3] The Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast was at about 0.24% for the month, according to TipRanks.[3] Continuum Economics' Dave Sloan expects only 0.2% on the headline, noting that "gasoline prices have seen only a marginal rise on the month."[2]
Not everyone thinks core will behave. Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau sees upside risks to core, and named used cars and health insurance as the two biggest unknowns.[2] In September, used car prices already rose 0.7% and airline fares and medical care also went up.[4]
Why there was no annual inflation rate this time
The 12-month rate compares this October's price level with last October's. The BLS could not publish full October 2025 data because of the 2025 government shutdown, so previews from Yahoo Finance and TipRanks both expect the October 2026 report to carry monthly changes only, without an official year-on-year headline figure.[2][3] Some economists estimate that annual inflation picked up slightly from September's 3.7%, but that is their own calculation, not an official number.[2]
For readers this matters in one practical way: headlines on Tuesday will lean on the monthly figures. A "0.3%" headline means prices rose 0.3% in one month, which works out to roughly 3.7% if it carried on for a year (1.003 to the 12th power), our own arithmetic.
What happened in September
September's report was hot because of fuel. Headline CPI rose 0.6%, gasoline jumped 9.1% and the energy index was up 20.4% on a year earlier. Gasoline alone made up more than half of the monthly increase. Food was flat, shelter rose 0.4%, and core rose 0.3% for a second month.[4] The surge in energy lines up with the Gulf conflict that pushed oil close to $100 a barrel this autumn; see our Iran war and oil prices explainer.
| September 2026 index | Change in month | Change over 12 months |
|---|---|---|
| All items | +0.6% | +3.7% |
| Core (less food and energy) | +0.3% | +2.6% |
| Energy | +5.2% | +20.4% |
| Gasoline | +9.1% | +34.2% |
| Food | 0.0% | +2.5% |
| Shelter | +0.4% | +3.2% |
| Used cars and trucks | +0.7% | -1.5% |
Source for the table: BLS CPI news release for September 2026, Table A.[4]
Why it matters for the Fed, mortgages and markets
The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, but the vote was 10 to 2, and both dissenters, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, wanted a quarter-point rise. The statement said plainly that "inflation remains elevated."[5] The next meeting is December 8-9, and this CPI is the last one the Fed sees before it.[5][2]
The jobs data last Friday made the debate sharper. Payrolls rose 165,000 in October and unemployment was 4.1%.[6] Market pricing for a December rate rise moved above 65% after that report, according to TipRanks, while Yahoo Finance put the odds at 83% and Reuters, citing CME FedWatch after Monday's close, said "above 80%".[3][2][9] On Monday, November 9, the Dow rose 1,104 points as oil fell and inflation worries eased a little.[9]
Borrowers are already feeling it. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.18% in the week to November 5, down from 7.24% a week earlier but well above 6.22% a year ago.[7] The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.88% on November 9, and the 2-year at 4.56%.[8] Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year yield, which is why a surprise in either direction on Tuesday can move what lenders quote within days.
Crypto and stock traders watch the same number for the same reason: it changes the odds of a rate rise. We are not making any price call here.
How to read the numbers
- Look at core first. The Fed's debate is about whether underlying inflation is stuck. October core came in at 0.3%, the same as September and above the 0.2% consensus.[10]
- Then energy. Gasoline drove September. In October energy rose only 0.7%, which is why the headline slowed to 0.4% while core stayed firm.[10]
- Check shelter, used cars and medical care. These were the parts that kept core up in September.[4]
- Ignore anyone quoting an "official" annual rate. The BLS published none for all items or core in October.[10]
- Wait for PCE. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, comes later in November.[2]
Timeline
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| October 14, 2026 | September CPI: +0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y |
| October 28, 2026 | Fed holds at 3.75%-4.00%, two votes for a hike |
| November 6, 2026 | October jobs report: +165,000, unemployment 4.1% |
| November 10, 2026 | October CPI: +0.4% m/m, core +0.3% (forecasts 0.3% and 0.2%); no official 12-month rate |
| Late November 2026 | PCE price index for October |
| December 8-9, 2026 | Fed meeting with new projections |
| December 10, 2026 | November CPI, 8:30am ET |
Frequently asked questions
What was the CPI for October 2026?
Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October 2026 and core CPI rose 0.3%, seasonally adjusted, against forecasts of 0.3% and 0.2%. September was 0.6% and 0.3%.[10][11]
Was October CPI higher or lower than expected?
Higher. Both the headline and core numbers were 0.1 percentage point above the consensus forecast.[11]
What time was CPI released?
8:30am Eastern Time on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. That was 5:30am in Los Angeles, 1:30pm in London, 6:30pm in Pakistan, 7:00pm in India and 12:30am on Wednesday in Sydney.[1]
What was the CPI forecast for October 2026?
The consensus was +0.3% for headline CPI and +0.2% for core CPI, month on month. The actual results were +0.4% and +0.3%.[2][3]
Is there a year-over-year inflation number for October 2026?
No. The BLS did not publish a 12-month rate for all items or core, because October 2025 prices were not collected during the shutdown.[10] September's 12-month rate was 3.7%.[2][3][4]
Is the Fed going to raise rates in December?
Nobody knows yet. Two officials voted for a rise in October, Governor Christopher Waller said on November 10 that he is leaning towards a December hike and that a half-point move should be considered if inflation came in above forecast, and market pricing leaned towards a rise before the report. After the report, CME FedWatch showed no chance of a hold, a quarter-point rise as the most likely outcome and about an 11% chance of a half-point move. The Fed decides on December 9.[12][5][3]
How did markets react to the October 2026 CPI?
Treasury yields rose, led by the 2-year yield (up about 13 to 15 basis points to around 4.7%), the dollar firmed, gold fell about 2% and stock index futures and Bitcoin slipped. CME FedWatch odds of a half-point December hike rose to about 11%.[14][15][17][20]
What is core CPI?
Core CPI is the index for all items less food and energy. It is watched because food and fuel prices swing a lot from month to month.[4]
More money explainers: US midterm results 2026: what changes in Congress and the Binance hack explained.
References
- "Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index". U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Accessed November 9, 2026.
- "October inflation data is expected to be cooler, helped by steadying energy prices". Claire Boston, Yahoo Finance. November 9, 2026.
- "U.S. Markets Brace for October CPI Report After Hot Jobs Data Pushes December Rate Hike Odds past 65%". TipRanks. November 9, 2026.
- "Consumer Price Index - September 2026". U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. October 14, 2026.
- "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement". Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. October 28, 2026. Also: FOMC meeting calendar.
- "The Employment Situation - October 2026". U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. November 2026.
- "Primary Mortgage Market Survey". Freddie Mac. November 5, 2026.
- "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates". U.S. Department of the Treasury. November 9, 2026.
- "US stocks jump as oil slide cools inflation worries; Nvidia slumps". Reuters via The Straits Times. November 9, 2026.
- "Consumer Price Index - October 2026" (USDL-26-1685). U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. November 10, 2026.
- "Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, more than expected". CNBC. November 10, 2026.
- "Fed Governor Waller sees December hike likely, opens door to possible half-point increase". CNBC. November 10, 2026.
- "U.S. CPI rose stronger than expected 0.4% in October; core rate rose 0.3%". CoinDesk. November 10, 2026.
- "10-year Treasury yield jumps after hot CPI and as Waller hints at half-point hike". CNBC. November 10, 2026.
- "Hot October inflation report rattles markets" and "Stock market today" live coverage. Yahoo Finance. November 10, 2026.
- "Premarket: S&P 500 futures fall sharply after October inflation data". The Globe and Mail (Reuters). November 10, 2026.
- "Dollar Rebounds as Waller's Hawkish Warning and Hot CPI Lift Fed Rate Expectations". Action Forex. November 10, 2026.
- "Gold prices down 2% on the day as US CPI rises more than expected". Kitco News. November 10, 2026.
- "Bitcoin Drops to $73,600 as Hot October CPI Fuels Fed Hike Bets". Bitbo. November 10, 2026.
- "Odds of Fed 50-Basis-Point December Hike Jump to 11% From 1.1% Before CPI". Bloomingbit. November 10, 2026.